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But the researchers said their paper is the first step in exploring the implications of automation, which will become increasingly widespread. There are relatively few robots in the U.S. economy today and the economic impacts could be just beginning.
Robotic technology is expected to keep expanding, with an aggressive scenario predicting that robots will quadruple worldwide by 2025. This would mean 5.25 more robots per thousand workers in the U.S., and by the researchers’ estimate, a 1 percentage point lower employment-to-population ratio, and 2% lower wage growth between 2015 and 2025. In a more conservative scenario, the stock of robots could increase slightly less than threefold, leading to a 0.6 percentage point decline in the employment-to-population ratio and 1% lower wage growth.
The economic crisis spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic will further exacerbate the good and bad impacts of robots and technology, Acemoglu said. “The good because we are really dependent on digital technologies. If we didn't have these advanced digital technologies, we wouldn't be able to use Zoom or other things for teaching and teleconferencing. We would not be able to keep factories going in many areas because workers haven't fully gotten back to work,” he said. “But at the same time, by the same token, this increases the demand for automation. If the automation process was going too far or had some negative effects, as we find, then those are going to get multiplied as well. So we need to take those into account.”
